Golden Cross: SMA vs EMA Crossover
August 31, 2009

System Rules:

Rules for all systems are the same except for the type (SMA,EMA) and length(10/50,50/200) of the MA's being used

  1. Enter position at the open if the previous day's faster MA(10,50) crosses the slower MA(50,200)
    • Long Entry = 10(50) MA > 50(200) MA
    • Short Entry = 10(50) MA < 50(200) MA
  2. Exit position at the open if the previous day's faster MA(10,50) crosses the slower MA(50,200) in the opposite direction
    • Long Exit = 10(50) MA < 50(200) MA
    • Short Exit = 10(50) MA > 50(200) MA

  • Risk 1% of Equity on each Trade
  • Position Size = ((Account Equity * 1%)/2 ATR)
  • Transaction Slippage = 2 ticks
  • Markets Traded: ES, NQ, TF, GC, SI, HG, CL, HO, NG, RB, ZC, CC, CT, KC, ZW, LE, HE, ZS, SB, AUD, GBP, JPY, EUR, CHF
Results:

10/50 SMA
10/50 EMA
50/200 SMA
50/200 EMA


Start Date
19840103
19840103
19840103
19840103
End Data
20090818
20090818
20090818
20090818
Trade Days
6449
6449
6449
6449
Years
25.59
25.59
25.59
25.59
Winning Months
167
170
186
176
Losing Months
140
137
121
131
Best Month
42%
41%
27%
27%
Worst Month
-20%
-21%
-16%
-19%
CAGR
14.27%
14.90%
16.63%
12.31%
Max DrawDown
-63.86%
-47.71%
-45.44%
-43.70%
MAR
.22
.31
.37
.28
Lake Ratio
43.39%
21.44%
17.36%
15.23%
R-Squared
.61
.82
.77
.68
Sharpe Ratio
.61
.66
.83
.68
Total Return
3024%
3500%
5190%
1897%
Starting Equity
$ 1,000,000
$ 1,000,000
$ 1,000,000
$ 1,000,000
Ending Equity
$ 31,239,488
$ 36,003,739
$ 52,902,806
$ 19,973,241

10/50 SMA

10/50 EMA

50/200 SMA

50/200 EMA





Without digging deeper into the trade data and looking at the periods of divergence between the SMA and EMA strategies, I find it interesting how quickly the outperformance of the 10/50 SMA vs the 10/50 EMA was reversed, then how much the two tracked each other.

The 50/200 cross strategies are long term strategies which makes less trade data available (even going back 25yrs). I'm cautious not to put too much weight on the outperformance of the 50/200 SMA over the 50/200 EMA strategy, in light of what was seen in the 10/50 cross strategies.

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